CGD's weekly Podcast, event videos, whiteboard talks, slides, and more.

Latin America Economic Prospects in 2013

In this CNN interview, Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez explains that while the region’s economic growth prospects remain strong for 2013, there are some factors that will limit its growth potential.

Liquidity Needs in Times of Stress: Should Latin America go Beyond the IMF? (Event Video)

Large accumulation of international reserves by Latin American countries was central in containing the adverse effects of the global financial crisis. Lines of credit from the Federal Reserve and the new liquidity facility from the IMF also played a key role, at least for some major countries. However, reserve accumulation is not free of cost, Fed support is not guaranteed and IMF resources might not be sufficient at times of systemic crises and may carry conditionality that make such assistance only contingent. This raises the question as to whether Latin America should actively pursue the effective implementation of regional arrangements capable of ensuring the availability of liquidity at times of acute financial stress. The Latin America Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee dealt with this issue by answering these questions, among others, and shared their statement publicly at this CGD event:

Liliana Rojas Suarez Discusses Risks to Growth Sustainability in Latin America

Amanda GlassmanIn these interviews Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez discusses the risks to growth sustainability in Latin American countries derived from the large vulnerabilities in advanced economies. In particular, she emphasizes risks for emerging markets from the lack of solution to the fiscal cliff problem in the U.S. While Liliana is confident about China's capacity to continue on a solid growth path (albeit at slower rates than those observed in previous years), she believes that the permanent solution to the European debt crisis requires either a comprehensive write-down of the Greek debt or a separation of Greece (and possibly Portugal) from the Eurozone.

Program-for-Results: An Update on the World Bank's New Finance Tool (Event Video)

The World Bank's Program-for-Results (PforR) financing instrument was approved in January 2012 to complement the two existing financing instruments of the Bank: the Policy Financing instrument (DPL), which focuses on discrete policy actions within the direct control of governments, and the Project Financing instrument (IL), the Bank's main instrument to finance investment projects. PforR has been developed to enable the Bank to support the performance of a government program using the government's own systems, and when the risks to achieving the program's objectives relate to the capacity of the systems to achieve better results.

Latin America's Surging Middle Classes: Are They Really a Force for Change? (event video)

Latin America's emerging middle class, defined as those unlikely to fall back into poverty, has grown by 50% in recent years and now includes one of every three people on the continent, roughly equal to the number of people who remain poor. A new World Bank study finds many potential benefits from this surging middle class but cautions that these benefits can only be fully realized if countries can strike a new social contract that links middle class interests to the inclusion of those left behind. The event will include presentation of the report's key findings and a panel discussion with some of the leading experts on the region's middle classes.

Priority Setting in Health: Supporting health technology assessment in the Americas (event video)

The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) is moving to tackle one of the most difficult and important challenges of health policy: strengthening regional mechanisms for assessing which health technologies are cost effective and therefore appropriate for public funding. It's a sensitive issue that vexes poor and rich countries alike--including the United States. A recent PAHO resolution signed by the United States, Canada, and countries in Latin America and the Caribbean will strengthen a network created last year to improve the quality of Health Technology Assessment studies and their use in the allocation of public budgets.

The European Crisis: Still in a Deteriorating Trend

In this CNN interview, Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez explains that recent policy announcement, while in the right direction, do not imply that a solution to the European crisis is on sight. She emphasizes that only decisive actions by the European Central Bank involving not only provision of liquidity (and purchase of government bonds) but also heavy involvement in the restructuring of banking systems in Spain and other European countries will guarantee a credible and permanent solution of the crisis. Lacking these actions, Rojas-Suarez expects continuous volatility in the international capital markets and a deteriorating trend in the Eurozone’s economic fundamentals.

The FED QE3 and its impact on Latin America

In this CNN interview Senior Fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez argued that the Fed's recently announced expansionary monetary policy (QE3) is a response to the lack of action by the US Government and Congress to solve the real problem facing the US: the country's fiscal and debt positions. While not ideal, the Fed's policy is an attempt to improve consumers' expectations who have become highly risk adverse in the face of large uncertainties both in Europe and in the US.
Liliana explained that, in contrast to events in 2010, this time around the effects of the Fed's policies will have less adverse effects on Latin America and other Emerging Market Economies. The central reason is that these countries' current economic cycle is one characterized by declining economic growth resulting from a reduced global demand for their products. This in turn is the result of a global slowdown that includes advanced economies and China. In Liliana's view, to the extent that the Fed's actions can improve markets' confidence, the positive effect--however limited--on US aggregate demand will offset the adverse effects on currency appreciations in Latin America and other economies.

The Implications of Complexity for Development - Owen Barder

In this lecture, adapted from his May 2012 Kapuściński Lecture, Owen Barder explores the implications of complexity theory for development policy. He explains how traditional economic models have tried and failed to understand why some countries have managed to improve living standards while other countries have not.

A Behavioral Economics Approach to Development Policy (Event Video)

SendhilBehavioral economics seeks to complement traditional approaches to economics by incorporating insights from psychology and human behavior, and taking a behavioral approach allows us to understand a host of behaviors that are critical to the success of a variety of development policies. In this event, Sendhil Mullainathan and Saugato Datta will present a paper exploring how behavioral economics can inform development policy, from education to health to cash transfer programs. Drawing on the latest research in these and other areas, the authors will discuss how behavioral economics provides policymakers with innovative new ways of tackling many important issues in development.